Zona de consolidacao no IBOV

Havendo rompimento de uma das linhas, entramos no trade na direcao desse rompimento.

Londres - revista Inve5tors

The Trader

Yup, it's a bear market...

the trader reflects on the fulfilment of his criteria for calling a bear market and what it means for the indices now.

(O trader reflete no potencial de seus criterios para chamar um bear market e no que isso siguinifica.)

The latest swoon in the stock markets finally provided the bearish signals I have been hanging on for. The Coppock indicator turned negative for both FTSE100 any many of the others top indices. More importantly, both Dow Industrials and Transports breached their June lows, thereby giving a Dow- Theory sell signals. As a result I believe this officially now qualifies as a bear Market.

(O ultimo desmaio no mercado financeiro finalmente provou ser os sinais de um bear market que eu estava esperando. O Coppock indicador tonou-se negativo para ambos FTSE100 e muitos dos outros principais indices. Mais importante, eh que tanto como o Dow jones Industrial e o Dow Jones Transportes rompenram suas minimas de junho, assim dando o sinal da Teoria de Dow para venda. Como resultado agora, acredito que esta oficialmente classificado como um Bear Market.)

In the grander scheme of things, I regard this new downtrend as the resumption of the process that began in 2000. As I argued most recently in June's edition of `Trader's Bigger Pictures`, we have been long-term bear market for the past decade, albeit one punctuated by spectacular bear narket rallies, such as that of 2003-07 and 2009-10. until last week, though, I thought the markets would exceed their April highs before the downtrend resumed. I no longer hold that view.

So, how far will the downtrend take us and over what period? the most optimistic view is that it will turn out to be the barest of Bear Markets. I referred on 2 June to a Morgan Stanley view that the sell-off was like that of 1998, where the market plunged by quarter in 56 days, before galloping on to new highs in short order. But I balk at comparing 1998 to the present. Back then, we were still in a long term bull Market. TODAY, WE ARE IN A LONG TERM BEAR MARKET.

At the very last, I belive the US and UK markets will ultimately revisit their lows of 2003 and 2009. In all probability, I see them going well through those levels - see the `Trader's Bigger Picture` for more detail on this. According to my cycle projections, the larger downtrend is likely to persist into late 2012. As things stand today, the most persistent selling could come in late 2011 and early 2012, when all of the S&P's long term cycles will be in their down-phases.

As with any bear market, we should not expect one-way traffic. Dramatic rallies will occur along the way. While short selling will naturally offer the best opportunities overall, I will certainly be ready to play the market from the long side at strategic moments. But I obviously do not expect buy-and-hold investing to prosper in this environment. I sold my personal FTSE100 holdings earlier this year and switched into gilts. This has paid of so far.

... Is this wise, considering that I now reckon we are in a bear market? On the whole, I believe in trading in the same direction as the larger trend. If the opportunity looks good enough, though, I can allow myself to break this, as a long as I run a tight stop-loss.