Al Weiss - Economic Cycles

It's Obvious from your earlier comments that you consider cycles important. Could you please elaborate?
There are cycle in everything - the weather, ocean waves, and the markets. One of the most important long-term cycles is the cycle from inflation and deflation. About every two generations - roughly every forty-seven to sixty years - there's deflationary market. For example, in respect to the commodity markets, we're currently in a deflationary phase that began in 1980. Over the past two hundred years, these deflationary phases have typically lasted between eight and twelve years. Since we're currently in the twelfth year of commodity price deflation, I think we're very close to a major bottom in commodity prices.

Another important consideration in regard to cycles is that their lengths vary greatly from market to market. For example, in the grain markets, which are heavily weather dependent, you may get major bull markets about five times every twenty years. In the gold market, however, a major bull cycle may occur only three to five times in a century. This consideration could make a market such as gold very frustrating for traders trying to play for the next bullish wave.
(the new market wizards - conversation with america's traders)